#toddrocks ← The property
850-797-0627
The case for the price

Every comparable sale points above the asking price.

Five waterfront properties. Twelve months. One conclusion — and it isn't a close call.

Adjusted comps support $1,050,000$1,125,000 Most probable value: $1,090,000
Offered at $1,000,000 Open to all reasonable offers
Entry below value $90,000 Below the most probable value
The short version

Four numbers do most of the work.

Waterfront isn't priced by the square foot of house — it's priced by the foot of water. On the metric that actually drives value here, this property is the cheapest waterfront in Freeport with a private dock and lift.

$7,692 Per waterfront foot

The lowest of any comp with a dock and lift. Two comps sold for more than $11,800 per foot.

130 ft Of open bay frontage

More water than four of the five comps — and it's open, south-facing bay, not bayou.

$441 Per square foot

The recent sold set averaged $519. This is 15% under the market it sits in.

4 of 5 Comps indicate higher

Adjusted indications cluster between $1,094,000 and $1,129,500 — all above the ask.

The comparable set

Every waterfront sale that qualifies. Nothing cherry-picked.

Detached single-family waterfront in Freeport, south of Highway 20 to 331, sold or pending in the last twelve months. That filter returns five properties — and all five are here, including the one that argues against us.

Comparable waterfront sales with the subject property
Property Price SqFt $/SqFt WF Ft $/WF Ft Acres Built Dock
This property 4658 County Hwy 83A W Offered · open bay, due south $1,000,000 2,269 $441 130 $7,692 0.90 1968 120 ft + lift
315 Red Barn Road Sold Jun 2026 · 50 DOM $1,200,000 1,631 $736 100 $12,000 0.67 2021 Yes + lift
24 Waterview Place Sold Sep 2025 · bayou frontage $1,125,000 2,446 $460 75 $15,000 0.25 1991 108 ft
4560 W Co Hwy 83A Sold Dec 2025 · 0 days on market $1,075,000 2,212 $486 165 $6,515 1.32 1996 No
969 Bay Harbour Blvd Pending · 6 DOM $950,000 2,420 $393 80 $11,875 0.41 2003 Yes
10 S Sunset Harbour Sold Feb 2026 · 326 DOM $790,000 2,004 $394 80.68 $9,792 0.43 2020 No
Sold-set average4 closed sales · last 12 months $1,047,500 2,073 $519

← Swipe the table to see all columns →

The metric that matters

Price per waterfront foot.

On the water, frontage is the scarce asset — you can renovate a kitchen, but you can't manufacture another foot of shoreline. Here's what the market paid per foot, lowest to highest.

Only one property in the set costs less per foot of water — and it doesn't have a dock. It also sold in zero days on market, meaning it never saw open exposure or competing offers. Every property here that has a private dock and lift traded above $11,800 per waterfront foot. This one is offered at $7,692.

Comp by comp

What each sale actually tells us.

Sold · Jun 2026 315 Red Barn Road, Freeport — comparable sale

315 Red Barn Road

$1,200,000$736 / sqft · $12,000 / wf ft
Waterfront100 ft
Lot0.67 acres
Size1,631 sqft
Built2021 · dock + lift

The high-water mark, and the most useful comp in the set. A finished 2021 build — but on 100 feet of water, a third less land, and 638 fewer square feet. It listed at $1,475,000 and took a $275,000 cut to sell.

View listing ↗
Sold · Sep 2025 24 Waterview Place, Freeport — comparable sale

24 Waterview Place

$1,125,000$460 / sqft · $15,000 / wf ft
Waterfront75 ft (bayou)
Lot0.25 acres
Size2,446 sqft
Built1991 · 2021 reno

Proof the market pays over $1.1M here. But it's 75 feet of bayou on a quarter acre — a fundamentally different product from open, south-facing bay, at nearly double the price per foot.

View listing ↗
Sold · Dec 2025 4560 W Co Hwy 83A, Freeport — comparable sale

4560 W Co Hwy 83A

$1,075,000$486 / sqft · $6,515 / wf ft
Waterfront165 ft
Lot1.32 acres
Size2,212 sqft
Built1996 · no dock

The closest comp there is — a brick home on this same road. It sold for $1,075,000 with no dock at all, which is the single clearest evidence the market pays seven figures for this exact profile. Sold in 0 days, so it never saw open exposure.

View listing ↗
Pending 969 Bay Harbour Boulevard, Freeport — comparable pending sale

969 Bay Harbour Blvd

$950,000$393 / sqft · $11,875 / wf ft
Waterfront80 ft
Lot0.41 acres
Size2,420 sqft
Built2003 · dock

Under contract in six days — the clearest read on live demand in this market right now. Buyers moved fast on 80 feet of water at nearly $11,900 per foot. This property offers 50 more feet for less per foot.

View listing ↗
Sold · Feb 2026 10 S Sunset Harbour, Freeport — comparable sale

10 S Sunset Harbour

$790,000$394 / sqft · $9,792 / wf ft
Waterfront80.68 ft
Lot0.43 acres
Size2,004 sqft
Built2020 · no dock

The weakest indication, and the least similar property here — no dock, an HOA, and an interior-facing lot. It needed 326 days and a price reduction to clear. Included for completeness; weighted least.

View listing ↗
Apples to apples

Adjust each sale to match this property, and they converge.

No two properties are identical, so each comp is adjusted for what it has more or less of — water frontage, land, living area, dock package, outbuildings, and condition. What's left is what each sale says this property is worth.

Adjusted indication Asking price · $1,000,000 Scale: $900,000 – $1,150,000

Four of the five indications land between $1,094,000 and $1,129,500 — a tight cluster, which is what you want to see when the data is telling the truth. Every one of them sits above the asking price. The lone outlier below is the property with no dock, an HOA, and 326 days on market.

The honest comparison

Even fully renovated, it still wins.

The obvious objection: the house is dated. Fair. So let's price that in at the top of the range — roughly $200,000 to bring it to a fully modern standard — and compare the finished result against the best sale in the set.

This property, fully renovated $1,200,000 $1,000,000 purchase + $200,000 renovation
  • Waterfront 130 ft
  • Lot 0.90 acres
  • Living area 2,269 sqft
  • Dock 120 ft + lift
  • Outbuildings 3
  • HOA None
versus
315 Red Barn Rd, as sold $1,200,000 Sold June 2026 · finished 2021 build
  • Waterfront 100 ft
  • Lot 0.67 acres
  • Living area 1,631 sqft
  • Dock Yes + lift
  • Outbuildings
  • HOA

Same money. 30 more feet of water, a third more land, 638 more square feet of house, a longer dock, and three outbuildings. And with a renovation, you choose the finishes instead of inheriting someone else's. That's the whole argument in one line.

Underneath the numbers

Where the value actually sits.

01

Frontage, and the kind of water it fronts

130 feet of open, south-facing Choctawhatchee Bay — more frontage than four of the five comps. One comp sold at $1,125,000 on 75 feet of bayou; another is pending at $950,000 on 80 feet. Not all waterfront is the same product, and open bay sits at the top of that hierarchy.

02

The dock is capital already in the ground

A 120-foot dock running to a boat lift, with fish-cleaning station, shower, and power, represents roughly $175,000–$250,000 to build today — and permitting timelines on the north shore mean it isn't something a buyer can simply add later. The two comps without docks are the two weakest performers per waterfront foot in the set.

03

Seawall and rip rap are baseline, not bonus

Shoreline protection is a requirement at this price point, not a luxury — and replacing it is a five-figure project. Most of the comps carry bulkhead or seawall. This property has vinyl seawall and rip rap already in place.

04

Land and structures

At 0.90 acres this is the second-largest parcel in the set, with a detached 2-car garage, carport, and a separate storage building and workshop. Only one comp offers more land — and it offers none of these structures.

05

Carrying costs

No HOA and no assessment, with 2025 taxes of $800.90. Two comps in the set carry a $600 annual assessment plus taxes of $5,823 and $6,737. For a buyer running the monthly numbers, that difference compounds every year of ownership.

Fair questions

The four objections, answered straight.

Every property has them. Here are this one's, with the data rather than a deflection.

The house needs a full renovation.

True, and it's already priced in. The adjustment grid carries the condition gap at roughly $200,000 — it is not deducted twice. All in at $1,200,000, this property still out-measures the $1,200,000 comp on water, land, size, dock and outbuildings.

Flood insurance runs about $3,000 a year.

Real, and disclosed up front. It's a carrying cost, not a value destroyer — and it's partly offset by a tax bill of $800.90 against comps paying $5,823 and $6,737 with an HOA assessment on top.

Only two bathrooms.

A legitimate functional limitation. It's also one of the highest-return line items inside the renovation budget — and the floor plan, with a 26×26 family room and vaulted ceilings, gives you room to solve it.

It was built in 1968.

All brick, vaulted ceilings, brick fireplace, windows on three sides of the family room. The bones are exactly why the renovation math works. A comparable brick home on this same road established that the market pays over $1,000,000 for this profile — with no dock at all.

Show your work

The method, and every source.

Verify all of it. Every comparable below links straight to its MLS record — open them and check the numbers yourself.

Adjustments applied

  • Waterfront frontage $2,000 / ft
  • Upland acreage ~$85,000 / acre
  • Contributory living area $100 / sqft
  • Dock, lift, fish station, seawall $125,000
  • Garage, carport, workshop $45,000
  • Condition / renovation gap ~$200,000

Condition adjustments reflect the full renovation gap, so the update budget is already inside these numbers and is not deducted twice.

Sources

Residential CMA prepared by Todd Siegrist, Dalton Wade Inc., 07/18/2026. Search: detached single-family waterfront, Freeport, Sub Area 2005 (S. of 20 to Hwy 331), sold or under contract within 365 days.

The conclusion

Priced to move, and the data says so.

The adjusted comparables support $1,050,000 to $1,125,000, clustering tightest between $1,094,000 and $1,129,500. It's offered at $1,000,000 — below the indicated range, on the strongest metric in waterfront valuation, with the dock, lift, seawall, acreage and outbuildings inside that number rather than on top of it.

The seller is also open to favorable terms and will consider any serious offer backed by considerable cash — flexibility none of these comps offered.

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